CSI papers published: Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean

Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean

Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean

Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming by D.Herrera, CSI member Toby Ault, and colleagues, email: toby.ault@cornell.edu

Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean as a consequence of increased anthropogenic greenhouse‐gas concentrations. Between 2013 and 2016, virtually the entire region experienced a “Pan‐Caribbean” drought, which was unprecedented since at least 1950. We find that human‐caused warming contributed to ~15–17% of drought severity by increasing evapotranspiration rates, and accounted for ~7% of land area under drought across the Caribbean. Our results therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has already increased drought risk in the Caribbean.

Toby Ault, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences